The World Bankโs June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report paints a cautiously optimistic picture of Nigeriaโs economic trajectory. According to the report, Nigeria is projected to maintain an unbroken streak of growth over the next three years, with real GDP rising by 3.6% in 2025, 3.7% in 2026, and 3.8% in 2027. This follows a 3.4% growth in 2024 and reflects a sustained recovery following years of volatility and policy uncertainty.
This positive outlook is underpinned by gains in key sectors and gradual implementation of critical reforms. According to the World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook for Nigeria, the country’s financial services and ICT sectors continue to drive expansion, supported by a young, tech-savvy population. Moreover, fiscal and monetary policy alignmentโparticularly the removal of fuel subsidies and tighter interest ratesโhave begun to stabilize inflation and rebuild investor confidence.
One of the most notable fiscal shifts has been the elimination of petrol subsidies in mid-2023. As detailed in the Nigeria Development Update (June 2025), this reform improved budget efficiency and freed up resources for infrastructure and social spending. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Nigeriaโs tightening of monetary policy has helped stabilize the naira and slow inflation, which is expected to fall graduallyโfrom 22.1% in 2025 to 15.9% by 2027.
Despite these encouraging indicators, challenges persist. Growth projections remain below the level needed to achieve Nigeriaโs developmental targets, such as President Bola Tinubuโs goal of a $1 trillion economy by 2030. The World Bank warns that per capita income growth will remain sluggishโabout 1.1% annuallyโbarely outpacing the countryโs high population growth, and therefore making limited impact on poverty reduction.
In addition, the World Bank report outlines several downside risks. A weaker global economy, exacerbated by trade tensions and monetary tightening in developed countries, could affect demand for Nigerian exports. The oil sector, still hampered by underinvestment and operational challenges, remains a drag on industrial growth. Domestically, inflationary pressures continue to erode household purchasing power, and without stronger safety nets, millions of Nigerians remain vulnerable.
To sustain and accelerate this growth, the World Bank recommends that Nigeria deepen its reforms. Priorities include expanding the tax base, reducing reliance on oil revenues, improving public sector governance, and investing in social services. Importantly, it emphasizes the need for greater diversificationโespecially through support for agriculture, manufacturing, and small-scale industriesโto unlock inclusive, long-term growth.
In summary, the World Bank’s forecast of 3.6% in 2025, 3.7% in 2026, and 3.8% in 2027 is a significant vote of confidence in Nigeriaโs medium-term prospects. However, the nationโs economic resilience will ultimately depend on how effectively policymakers can turn macro-level gains into broader development outcomes for its over 220 million citizens. As noted in Reutersโ latest report, Nigeria is showing signs of recovery, but the road ahead demands consistent reform and inclusive policy action.
